Institution: HBM will account for 35% of advanced processes by the end of 2024
According to the market research firm TrendForce, the demand for HBM is showing rapid growth in the market, coupled with high profits from HBM. Therefore, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron International will increase their capital investment and production capacity investment. It is expected that by the end of this year, HBM will account for 35% of advanced processes, while the rest will be used to produce LPDDR5 (x) and DDR5 products.
Based on the latest progress of HBM, TrendForce stated that this year HBM3e is the mainstream in the market, with shipments concentrated in the second half of the year. SK Hynix remains the main supplier, and both Micron and SK Hynix use 1 β The nm process, two manufacturers have shipped Nvidia; Samsung adopts 1 α The nm process will be validated in the second quarter and delivered mid year.
In addition to the continuous increase in the proportion of HBM demand, the single machine carrying capacity of the three major applications of PC, server, and smartphone has increased, so the consumption of advanced processes has been increasing quarter by quarter. After mass production on the new platforms of Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa, only DDR5 can be used for storage specifications. This year, the DDR5 penetration rate will exceed 50% by the end of the year.
In terms of the new factory, the Samsung factory will have a roughly full capacity by the end of 2024. The P4L of the new factory is planned to be completed by 2025, and the Line 15 factory process will be converted from 1Y nm to 1 nm β Nm or above; SK Hynix plans to expand its M16 production capacity next year, and the M15X is also scheduled to be completed by 2025 and put into mass production by the end of the year; Meguiar's Taiwan, China plant will resume full load next year, and the subsequent capacity expansion will be dominated by the American plant. The Boise plant will be completed in 2025 and moved one after another, with mass production in 2026.
TrendForce pointed out that due to Nvidia GB200's increase in production in 2025, with specifications of HBM3e 192/384GB, it is expected that HBM output will nearly double, and various original factories will soon welcome HBM4 research and development. If investment does not significantly expand, DRAM products may be in short supply due to capacity crowding out effects.
In addition to the continuous increase in the proportion of HBM demand, the single machine carrying capacity of the three major applications of PC, server, and smartphone has increased, so the consumption of advanced processes has been increasing quarter by quarter. After mass production on the new platforms of Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa, only DDR5 can be used for storage specifications. This year, the DDR5 penetration rate will exceed 50% by the end of the year.
In terms of the new factory, the Samsung factory will have a roughly full capacity by the end of 2024. The P4L of the new factory is planned to be completed by 2025, and the Line 15 factory process will be converted from 1Y nm to 1 nm β Nm or above; SK Hynix plans to expand its M16 production capacity next year, and the M15X is also scheduled to be completed by 2025 and put into mass production by the end of the year; Meguiar's Taiwan, China plant will resume full load next year, and the subsequent capacity expansion will be dominated by the American plant. The Boise plant will be completed in 2025 and moved one after another, with mass production in 2026.
TrendForce pointed out that due to Nvidia GB200's increase in production in 2025, with specifications of HBM3e 192/384GB, it is expected that HBM output will nearly double, and various original factories will soon welcome HBM4 research and development. If investment does not significantly expand, DRAM products may be in short supply due to capacity crowding out effects.